The one-man show in the 4G era: mobile dislocation competition

The possibility of 4G licenses being issued this year is gradually increasing. According to the news and actions from all parties, China's three operators may obtain the first batch of 4G network licenses-TD-LTE by the end of this year at the earliest and at the latest by the end of the year.

No LTE FDD?

Maybe there is, maybe not. At least, the possibility of not having LTE FDD in the first batch is greater.

"Drag" of 3G license and "fast" of 4G license

This story starts with the era of 3G licenses. In January 2009, China's 3G licenses were issued, and the three operators obtained 3G network construction licenses of three different standards. This time is far behind the industry's expectations for a full five years-in addition to the direct factor of completing the restructuring of telecom operators, some insiders analyzed that the TD-SCDMA standard waiting for China's independent intellectual property rights to mature is also a 3G license. One of the reasons it was released in 2009.

In the end, China Mobile (Weibo), the big brother of the industry that still has its strength after the reorganization, shouldered the important task of building a "domestic" 3G network, while the two younger brothers China Unicom (Weibo) and China Telecom (Weibo) won Obtained more mature international WCDMA and CDMA2000 licenses.

In theory, the more advanced domestic TD-SCDMA standard lags behind the other two in terms of maturity and terminal. This has resulted in a "contrast" increase in the 3G network user penetration rate of the three major operators from the issuance of licenses to today-China Unicom (38.2%) and China Telecom (44%) have a much higher 3G user penetration rate than China Mobile ( 18.63%).

At present, China Mobile is doing its best to carry out the trial deployment of TD-LTE 4G network. According to internal news, its 3G network construction is no longer the focus of work. An operator insider said that China Mobile is probably not very optimistic about the performance of TD-SCDMA when it launched the 3G network. In other words, this is "hard" for national strategy. However, China Mobile is not content with this. Any technology has a gradual maturity process. Therefore, shortening the 3G cycle and quickly transitioning to the 4G era may be the strategy formulated by China Mobile in the 3G era.

Unicom and telecommunications tangled

In the 3G era, three licenses were issued at the same time, and Unicom and Telecom accounted for the advantages in network standards. The two operators also hope to narrow the gap with the big brother China Mobile in the 3G era. The longer the 3G era lasts, the better it will be for China Unicom and Telecom.

But the arrival of 4G is unstoppable. China Unicom and Telecom have prepared and explored the 4G standard based on LTE FDD technology, and look forward to relying on more mature international standards to maintain the "technical leadership" of TD-LTE in the 4G era.

But everything is not what one wishes. The technological maturity of TD-LTE to LTE FDD in the 4G era will be weaker than that in the 3G era, and may even be reduced to a level that does not affect user perception. This is very likely to happen.

What makes Unicom and Telecom even more entangled is that the first wholesale 4G license may not have their carefully prepared LTE FDD. In some current rumors, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is likely to give priority to issuing TD-LTE licenses this year.

In order to support the domestic 4G standard, it is not impossible to obtain a first-time advantage for TD-LTE through the issuance of licenses. Unicom and Telecom are facing a situation where not only is LTE FDD not commercially available at the beginning of 4G, but more importantly, how to treat it may impose its own TD-LTE license.

4G to 3G dislocation competition

This is a difficult problem. Obviously, it is not in the immediate interests of the two operators to let Unicom and Telecom fully develop the TD-LTE standard 4G network. The "lease network" proposed by Telecom and the "network construction" proposed by China Unicom are actually more like an expression of attitude, and they will leave a way out for LTE FDD licenses to be delayed.

At present, the highest speed of China Unicom's evolved version of HSDPA + 3G network reaches 42Mbps, which is nearly 3 times higher than the 14.4Mbps in the initial stage of commercial use. The results of China Mobile's 4G test network in the city, outdoor and road test are basically maintained between 30Mbps and 60Mbps, which is a significant improvement relative to mobile's own 3G network, but there is no revolution compared with the highest speed of Unicom HSPA + Sexual promotion. Therefore, in the initial stage of 4G commercialization, if it is not possible to obtain the LTE FDD license for the first time, Unicom is not competing against mobile 4G through the existing 3G network. It's just that China Unicom's network advantage in the 3G era will be offset by the mobile TD-LTE's leading position.

Look at China Telecom again. Because the 3G network of CDMA does not technically have the high rate of WCDMA, therefore, the telecommunication adopts a mode of struggling to cover speed but not struggling during the construction of the 3G network. At present, telecom 3G has the best coverage effect in urban and rural areas, indoor and outdoor, and even on high-speed railways. In the 4G era, telecommunications can still promote the advantages of high coverage to counter the high rates of mobile and China Unicom.

Another possible option for China Telecom is to rent a mobile 4G network in core cities to increase the speed requirements of high-end users, and then combine the advantages of CDMA2000 coverage in third- and fourth-tier cities and rural suburbs to form a differentiated market strategy and wait for LTE FDD License issuance.

If Unicom and Telecom are not enthusiastic about TD, and the LTE FDD license is at least one year later than TD, it is likely that there will be a mismatch between China ’s three major operators-China Mobile ’s 4G network against Unicom and Telecom The respective 3G network.

Of course, there is another possibility for the development of the story, that is, TD-LTE and LTE FDD licenses are issued at the same time. Everyone continues to return to the competitive environment in the 3G commercial era. This is what Unicom and Telecom most hope for, and it is what mobile does not want to see.

In fact, all competition still depends on strength and service. One of the most important questions for all industry officials is: Is TD-LTE really mature?

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