It is never a simple task to master the growth trend of the semiconductor market, but the forecast figures from various analytical agencies, industrial organizations and even the manufacturers themselves still have a key influence on the development trend of the entire industry. accurate? Does the forecasting method need to change over time?
At the annual Mentor Forum Technology Forum in Taiwan (Hsinchu) in late August, Eden supplier Mentor Graphics CEO Walden C. Rhines (Wally) "predicts the next wave of semiconductor growth (PredicTIng the Next Wave "The Semiconductor Growth"" delivered a special speech on the topic, sharing its observations over the past 40 years for the trend forecast of the IC industry.
He said that industrial organizations such as the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) have traditionally predicted the growth rate of the semiconductor industry based on the revenue of various IC manufacturers, but this method is prone to errors, mainly because there are many "Hidden" IC revenue figures. For example, Samsung and Apple, the top two providers of smartphones, use their own custom application processors. This part of the chip revenue figures is not external. Open, but it is estimated that the combined market share of the two companies in the customized processor market is more than 30%; and such "hidden" IC revenues can reach $10 billion.
SIA predicts semiconductor market growth rates based on vendor revenue figures, often with errors (Source: Mentor Graphics)
So, is there a more accurate way to predict market trends? Wally proposed the concept of replacing revenue figures with wafer shipments (area) as a basis for forecasting; and if this method is used to predict the growth rate of the IC industry, the figures and actual IC revenue figures are included. The "hidden" IC revenues will be closer.
Replacing revenue with IC shipments (area) as a basis for forecasting seems to be able to more accurately predict industry growth rates (Source: Mentor Graphics)
In addition, in view of the new applications and the main driving force for semiconductor growth, Wally also proposed a Gompertz curve mathematical model invented by nineteenth-century mathematician Benjamin Gompertz for various emerging applications. It is the product life cycle of the Internet of Things (IoT) related device.
He believes that there are three main IoT applications that will drive the growth of the semiconductor industry, namely Data Center, Gateway, and IoT nodes. Among them, data center applications include massive data analysis, networking, management servers and internal processor SoCs in the so-called cloud, as well as a large amount of memory (solid state hard disk) supporting storage; gateways are responsible for collecting Hub devices for data collection from various IoT nodes; IoT nodes include devices such as sensors, actuators, imagers, and transceivers.
How do semiconductor manufacturers master these business opportunities? Wally said that the above-mentioned IoT applications of the three levels of large, medium and small, the demand for technology and the product life cycle model are not the same (as shown below); and the vendors that attack the Internet of Things market need to know first. Yes, the owner of the data will be able to make the most profit from this emerging application.
Three Internet of Things business opportunities (Source: Mentor Graphics)
This means that market rules may be broken and new challenges will follow – there will be many non-traditional semiconductor vendor customers who have new requirements for semiconductor components in order to collect and analyze data; in addition, IoT node devices may become More complex, and traditional semiconductor manufacturers will also need to try to enhance their self-worth by owning information. EDA vendors will be key partners in helping semiconductor industry meet challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities.
"How can you miss this new feast of the Internet of Things?! The 3rd "China IoT Conference" organized by Huaqiang Jufeng's Electronic Enthusiasts Network will be held in Shenzhen on December 2: Global Vision The exclusive view of higher value, more professional technology sharing, more cutting-edge pulsation, gathering of the world's well-known enterprises and elites of the Internet of Things, you must not miss it! More information welcome everyone to continue to pay attention to the electronic enthusiast network!" (Click on the picture see details)
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