"Failed to jump" power shortage

This power shortage since the end of last year was called by the media as the "longest" electricity shortage. This time the electricity shortage not only lasted for a long time, but also appeared in the off-season. The “unable to jump” electricity shortage seems to have become the norm. In order to ease the operational dilemma, power companies tentatively proposed the possibility of re-adjusting the price, but this is obviously not the fundamental solution to the contradiction between coal and electricity.

Compared with seasonal seasonal power shortages in previous years, this year's power shortage has occurred under the backdrop of the economic situation is not optimistic, and electricity consumption growth has slowed down quarter by quarter. According to analysis in the industry, China's current total installed capacity of electric power is sufficient to meet the power demand under normal circumstances. At present, China's power shortage is no longer an issue of insufficient installed capacity, but is a fuel supply problem caused by the long-term backlog of coal and electricity contradictions. The electricity price that has been raised this year has been considered by the power companies as a “glass of water,” and it is almost impossible for the one-step price increase to be higher under the current high CPI. The reduction in power generation companies’ willingness to generate electricity has, to a certain extent, exacerbated and prolonged this power shortage.

The contradiction between coal and electricity is ultimately a contradiction of the price mechanism. This has been repeated many times. In the coal and electricity industry chain, the marketization mechanism of electricity prices has not been finally formed, resulting in the more market-oriented coal prices, the greater the contradiction between coal and electricity. Constrained by price pressures, the expedient measure of the coal-electricity linkage mechanism is often difficult to implement in time under price pressures. The root cause of coal-power contradiction is that the system of "market coal and planned electricity" has not been straightened out, and the diarrhea between coal and electricity is difficult to resolve. The dissolution of coal-power contradictions must ultimately rely on the continuous advancement of the reform of the power system. However, the pace of reform of the power system has been difficult under the entanglement of various interests and it is difficult to complete it in the short term.

Now we must jump out of the pattern of electricity shortages. The feasible policy is to increase the willingness of power generation companies. In fact, the competent authorities and power companies have also made many attempts and efforts. For example, allowing power companies to extend upstream, access to coal resources to increase coal self-sufficiency rate; encourage coal companies and power companies to sign long-term cooperation contracts; accelerate the approval of new thermal power plants.

However, various problems have arisen in the actual implementation of these efforts. Some power companies have started to use coal mines to start their “coal bosses.” Selling coal can make money easily. Why does it rely on electricity to make money? What's more, due to the large gap between the price of the key contracted coal and the market price, in the past two years, many fuel companies have profited from selling the key contract coal to earn the difference. These relatively low-priced coal Can not be used in the production of power companies, but has become a way for individual companies and individuals to profit. The newly-built power plants approved by the relevant departments have also been shelved because they do not earn money or have a heavy debt burden. Recently, industry experts have suggested that in the short term, the state should increase its subsidies to power plants should be more feasible. Direct economic subsidies can ease the pressure on power companies to lose money, but the source of subsidies and subsidies is also an inevitable problem.

In any case, the power system reform is the ultimate solution to the contradiction between coal and electricity. In the short term, once the “disconnected” power shortage becomes the norm, it will impose a “squeezing curse” on energy shortages for industrial production. Therefore, while continuously increasing energy supply to meet production needs, it may also use power shortage to promote economic structure. Adjustments.

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