LED chip overcapacity continues to spread

[Source: Gaogong LED's "LED Research Review" magazine February issue Reporter / Liu Qiaomei] "Like a dozen hungry wolves, grab a piece of fat meat, everyone is killing red eyes." Yang Yi is a domestic epitaxial chip factory The person in charge, who has just experienced the price war in the domestic and international extended chip market in 2012, he still has a lingering fear.

"Inventory is still a pain that everyone can't linger," Yang Yi said. "Our company still has about four or five months of inventory. At present, the turnover days of domestic chip factories are about 120 days, and the worst is 180 days. Now the company's salary is paid, the materials are bought back, and the electricity bill is affordable."

Performance continues to decline

According to statistics from the High-Tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), the average price of China's white LED low-power chips fell by 31% in 2012, the average price of high-power chips fell by 33%, and the average price of medium-power chips dropped the most, by 40%. And the price decline of medium power chips continued to expand, and the price decline of large and small power chips continued to narrow.

The price war is fierce, as evidenced by the 2012 performance bulletins that have been announced by several listed companies.

On February 27th, Ganzhao Optoelectronics (300102) released the 2012 annual results forecast. The announcement said that during the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating income of 381 million yuan, an increase of 1.08% over the same period of the previous year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 108 million yuan, a decrease of 39.33% over the same period of the previous year.

According to Ganzhao Optoelectronics, during the reporting period, the company's operating profit, total profit and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies decreased compared with the previous year, mainly due to the large decline in the sales price of the main products and the decrease in gross profit margin; The provision for impairment of assets for the current period has increased compared with last year; the sales volume in the current period has increased compared with the same period of last year, and the sales expenses have increased accordingly. The increase in cash dividends, the decrease in cash inventories and the decrease in bank interest rates have resulted in interest income over the same period last year. decline.

On the same day, Huacan Optoelectronics (300323.SZ) also released its 2012 performance report. During the reporting period, it achieved operating income of 330 million yuan, a decrease of 30.38% over the same period of the previous year; operating profit was 32.36 million yuan, a decrease of 75.95 over the same period of the previous year. %; total profit was 108 million yuan, a decrease of 25.42% over the same period of last year; net profit was 87.34 million yuan, a decrease of 29.93% over the same period of the previous year.

Huacan Optoelectronics said that the main reason for the decline in operating performance was the impact of increased market competition. The unit price of LED chips declined more than expected, a significant decline from the previous year. As a result, although the number of chips sold exceeded the previous year, it was open. Revenue, operating profit, total profit and net profit were lower than the same period of the previous year.

Dehao Runda (002005) released the 2012 performance report. In the report period, the company's operating income was 2.824 billion yuan, down 8% from the same period of the previous year; total profit was 208 million yuan, down 54% from the same period of last year; attributable to shareholders of listed companies The net profit was 168 million yuan, down 57% from the same period of the previous year.

The situation of another chip-listed company, Silan Mingxin, is also not optimistic. According to Silan Micro (600460.SH) 2012 financial report, Silan Mingxin achieved operating income of 155 million yuan in 2012, a decrease of 54.69% compared with 2011, and a net profit of 29.39 million yuan, compared with 2011. Reduced by 152.93%. The main reason for the decrease in the net profit of Silan Mingxin is: Due to the intensified competition in the LED industry, the price of Silan Mingxin LED color screen chips has dropped significantly in 2012, which has greatly squeezed the profit margin of the products.

No shortage of expanders

Even so, in 2013, there was still a lot of expansion in the chip industry at home and abroad.

“Jucan Optoelectronics has signed 15 MOCVD order contracts in 2013, of which 5 MOCVD will be entered at the end of March. Counting 69 new AIXTRON 69-piece machines at the end of 2012, if all expansion is successful, plus the original Some 6 MOCVD, that means that Jucan Optoelectronics will reach the scale of 24 MOCVD." Liu Hongyu, deputy general manager of Jucan Optoelectronics Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. told the reporter of "High-tech LED".

"The big pattern of overcapacity of epitaxial chips is definitely no way to make substantial changes this year," Liu Hongyu said frankly. Under such a background, Jucan Optoelectronics expanded its production because of receiving considerable orders.

The shipments of domestic LED backlight TVs have also stimulated the expansion of the same kind of people like Jucan Optoelectronics.

TCL Group (000100.SZ) released the announcement of major product sales in December 2012. Data show that in 2012, TCL Group's LCD TV sales (including commercial displays) reached 15.78 million units, an increase of 42.60%; in December 2012, the Group's LED backlight LCD TVs continued to maintain high growth, with sales reaching 1,725,500 units, a year-on-year increase. 81.77%, accounting for 92.19% of the company's total LCD TV sales in the month.

Skyworth Group (00751) in 2012, LED LCD TVs sold a total of 8,815,500 units, of which the sales of LED LCD TVs in China's color TV business unit was 7,736,400 units, and the sales of LED LCD TVs in the overseas TV business unit was 1,485,100 units.

"In 2013, 32-54-inch TVs of domestic TV manufacturers such as TCL and Konka, the penetration rate of LED backlights will be very high. We also want to use this opportunity to put half of the expanded capacity into this business." Liu Hongyu Said.

Taiwan's leading chip company, Jingyuan Optoelectronics, is also actively expanding production. According to public information, the Changzhou plant, which is a joint venture between Jingdian and Lite-On, will add 8 MOCVDs to expand production this year.

In addition, Veeco announced that it has received an order to develop Crystal Lighting (Xiamen) Co., Ltd. to order multiple MOCVD equipment with multiple reaction chambers and single reaction chambers, including the new model Max Bright. Dr. Zhou Mingjun, General Manager of Jingyuan Optoelectronics, said: "The recent expansion in Xiamen is to achieve our goal of maximizing our share of the LED backlight, automotive and general lighting markets in China."

"The layout of Jingdian is still step by step, and it will calculate the production capacity and actual demand. I personally think it is relatively conservative." Yang Yi said, "In contrast, the mainland epitaxial plant basically does not care what will happen tomorrow, first crazy. Expand production and say."

Oversupply

In addition to the expansion, there are new entrants in the field of extended chips at home and abroad.

On January 28, 2013, Xi'an Shenguang Haorui Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd., which is known as the "father of the chip" in China, announced that the new LED epitaxial wafer and chip production project was successfully trial-produced at the space base.

"In the next two years, the chip market as a whole will be in an oversupply situation, and it will definitely fall in price," said industry insiders. "Especially in the past few years, companies that have invested heavily in epitaxial chips. As far as I know, Dehao Runda The chip price is the most serious."

The long-term oversupply of the chip market is reflected in the mid-stream packaging companies. "Most of the manufacturers think that the market will not be short of chips in the future, and the price of the chips will be lower, so I will not care about stocking for the time being." Yang Yi is ready to digest some stocks before the Lunar New Year, but the results are not optimistic. "Some packaging factories have placed the Spring Festival holiday ahead of schedule."

"Chip prices have been falling, and will continue to fall in 2013, but the decline may be smaller in 2012." Gong Wen, general manager of Shenzhen Jingtai Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. told reporters of "High-tech LED". "It is precisely because of this, we will definitely not ship."

“Price pressure will definitely be there,” said Hongyu. “The key is still the technical power of the company, because it directly determines your product positioning and market positioning. This is under the overcapacity, every company must consider The problem."

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