Electronic enthusiasts eight o'clock: According to the latest research results of Gartner, the world's leading information technology research and consulting company, Chinese state-owned enterprises will become the most active investors in the world, striving to become a world-class manufacturer in the slow-growing semiconductor market. Therefore, the leaders of the semiconductor business technology business departments should formulate new plans for future business in China.
Gartner's forecast for the semiconductor investment market is as follows:
More than 100 billion U.S. dollars in investment will increase the camp of Chinese local semiconductor companies by 3 times in 2025
The Chinese government has a strong force to direct domestic capital to specific industries operated by state-owned or state-owned companies. For industries that require large-scale investments (such as LCD panels, high-speed rail, solar, and LED markets), the Chinese government's guidance model has been effective. In order to achieve the stated objectives in the guidelines, the first round of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co., Ltd. (CICIIF) is about 20 billion US dollars, but according to market estimates, the total investment of local governments and state-owned enterprises will exceed 100 billion in the first round. Dollar. As of September 2016, about 60% of the $10 billion approved by CICIIF was invested in chip manufacturing, 27% in chip design, 8% in packaging and testing, and 3% in equipment, with material investment accounting for 2%.
In this round of investment, semiconductor equipment providers will see an increasing demand for new wafer processing plants in the Chinese market. We believe that most wafer processing plants will be officially put into production by 2020. While most manufacturers' processes are not able to reach world-leading levels in the near future, the new capacity of 12-inch and 8-inch fabs will have an impact on the existing wafer foundry market by 2020. The second round of investment as of 2025 will focus on more advanced technology processes based on successful market experience.
In order to achieve the ambitious goals of 2025 or even 2030, large-scale investment in the semiconductor industry should be the consistent strategy of China's policy. Suppliers in the upstream supply chain will be the main beneficiaries until Chinese companies have the ability to provide equipment, services or industrial production.
China's foundry will achieve an annual minimum revenue growth of 20% in the next five years
As China's infrastructure construction has improved significantly (or upgraded) over the past 10 years, the income of China's fabless semiconductor companies has increased by 20% annually over the past few years. This trend will continue, which will increase the purchase of wafers by Chinese foundries by 20% in the next five years.
As the Chinese government strongly supports the semiconductor industry, global semiconductor companies have taken the initiative to identify their respective Chinese strategies as collaboration with Chinese manufacturers to avoid being excluded. In the next five years, some international fabless semiconductor companies may turn up to 50% of their wafer procurement needs to Chinese foundries.
In the past two years, Chinese foundries have been slow to develop and mass produce 28 nanometer (nm) logic circuits, while other leading foundries are moving to 14nm in 2015 and will start 10nm in 2017. Production of the process. In the next five years, Chinese foundries will continue to compete with the most advanced logic circuit technology companies. Strong revenue growth will be limited to processes that do not have a leading edge.
By 2025, 30% of processors for local PCs and servers will be designed and manufactured in China in the form of license agreements with existing processor vendors.
To ensure that IT infrastructure and equipment are self-sufficient, the Chinese government has been investing in high-performance processors with different architectures over the years—including x86, ARM, Power, and Alpha—but it is still difficult to commercialize and bring it to the mainstream.
Through joint ventures and licensing, Chinese companies can acquire the ability to design and produce advanced processors, while mature international companies can ensure business opportunities in the Chinese market.
China's native wafer processing plant plans to achieve 14nm node manufacturing capacity by 2020 and reach the world's leading level by 2030, thus producing mainstream processors in China.
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