With the proliferation of mobile phones and smartphone users and the proliferation of applications built on them, personal navigation devices (PNDs) are facing serious challenges for GPS-enabled mobile phones. With Google and Apple's redefinition and reshuffle of the navigation market, as well as the definition of terms such as mobile internet devices (MIDs), it is said that the mobile market will develop or what business opportunities it will bring. It is too early. In the field of navigation, there has been a long-standing debate about personal navigation devices and mobile-based navigation, and their support ratings are comparable. Moreover, this debate is still going on, is it a PND, a mobile phone, or a combination of both? The experts in the text may be able to provide you with updated ideas.
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1, the success of smart phones is not yet known
Recently, Google and Nokia have provided free Turn-by-Turn (TBT) satellite navigation applications for their smartphone devices, which is more clear than ever that the satellite navigation industry has come to the forefront of great changes. Almost all of this industry was dominated by personal navigation device manufacturers (such as Garmin and TomTom), but mobile device manufacturers are forming a force that cannot be underestimated, which will change the state of the entire industry chain.
Key factors for successful smartphone positioning
In the field of satellite navigation, the natural trend of device integration and the growing demand for location-based services (LBS) have made smartphone manufacturers increasingly important. As Moore's Law says, while the performance of the device continues to increase, it is expected that the price will continue to decrease and the volume will become smaller and smaller. In the field of consumer electronics, there has been a trend of device integration.
Device integration continues to exist, such as a standalone product that used to evolve into a feature in the device. The combination of an email client and a mobile phone gave birth to the BlackBerry, and then added a digital music player and a camera to become an iPhone. With this trend in mind, the integration of GPS and 3G smartphones will be the trend and will be realized soon. The TBT navigation application originally used only for PND will be integrated into the smartphone. In this increasingly connected world, the trend of smartphones entering the satellite navigation field is inevitable and will be further driven by users' growing demand for LBS. Of course, the ultimate success of smartphones in this area is still unknown.
As with device integration in any situation, the integration tool should at least be able to perform every task in a stand-alone device, and the benefits of convenience must outweigh the loss of functionality. However, due to the limitations of low-end GPS technology and screen size, smartphones have not completely replaced PNDs.
The development of smartphones with satellite navigation functions depends on three key factors: the availability of affordable equipment, the affordability of data solutions, and the reliability of 3G infrastructure. While smartphones and data solutions have been affordable to the average consumer in developed countries such as the US or Western Europe, they are far from being realized in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia. In stark contrast to the experience of ordinary American users, there is also the issue of data roaming charges. For markets with frequent cross-border travel, data roaming charges can seriously affect the burden of 3G network link charges generated by most TBT applications in smartphones. At the same time, although the 3G infrastructure is more common and stable than ever, its reliability remains problematic. In the United States, more and more mobile phones are connected to the Internet through 3G networks, so they sometimes overload and cause network paralysis.
Netbooks, tablets, iPhones, and other smart phones rely mainly on 3G networks. With the heavy use of these devices, dropped calls and general connectivity problems will inevitably worsen. This may be a real obstacle to the use of 3G smartphones as satellite navigation devices, at least for network providers to upgrade their network infrastructure to 4G.
What will happen in the future?
The growing market for smartphones is also a key factor in determining its success as a satellite navigation device. We should take a moment to think about the possible impact of this change on the relevant manufacturers. On the one hand, smartphone device manufacturers and application developers provide users with free TBT applications, it seems that they want to Market share as much as possible from PND manufacturers. However, these manufacturers should never be tempted to speculate on the psychology of consumers, believing that they will actively accept the versatile equipment they provide. On the other hand, PND manufacturers need to constantly improve the quality of their products to deal with the impact of smart phones, but they also need to understand that the challenges facing the future are not as simple as they seem. The decline in PND costs, the low penetration rate in emerging markets, and the reduction in the price of in-vehicle navigation systems all provide room for the development of PNDs. In particular, PND manufacturers must take advantage of their inherent advantages in vehicle navigation, such as large screen display, no network dependence. For companies that produce navigation base maps, the future is bright. Creating a high-quality map database is very expensive and difficult, so most companies that offer satellite navigation services need to purchase basic map data from third parties.
With all of this in mind, we can conclude that the basic trends and drivers are clear, whether it is winning or losing depends on the choices that the business makes for future development. Winners will be those who constantly think about, make full use of opportunities, fear the threat of new things, and firmly defend their position. These companies need to constantly develop effective development strategies based on environmental changes and constantly review their capabilities to meet the needs of competition.
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2, PND is destined to withdraw from the market
Attempts to predict the growth, development, and success of technology are a very common phenomenon, and accurate predictions are rare. Ken Olson, founder and CEO of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), said in 1977: "We have no reason to think that people will need a home computer." IBM founder Watson Thomas also insisted, "Maybe Five computers can satisfy the entire world market."
Now, when you see the development of things, you may be scornful about these predictions. The first generation of car GPS devices came out in 1996. If someone told you at that time, you will use a more advanced and powerful device than DEC's VAX small computer in 14 years, and it is small enough. Installed in your pocket, users can also use it to connect to a global computer network, or as a mobile phone, you will not believe this, or at least recommend people who say this to reduce caffeine intake.
We fast forward to 2010, TeleAtlas and Navteq are both acquired by Garmin, and Google and Nokia are beginning to offer completely free TBT navigation for mobile devices. So what will happen? What will become the dominance? Is it a personal navigation device, a telematics system or a mobile phone? Perhaps all three products will continue to evolve, but by no means are such computers, mobile phones, cameras, Internet terminals and now Blind integration of PND.
The first generation of GPS navigation systems that came out in 1996 was once the darling of high-end luxury models. It was prestigious at the time and was seen as a luxury; in the past it was like the current telematics system. Back in 2004, TomTom's product GO was second to none, and now PNDs are everywhere. Six years later, the GPS is embedded in the mobile phone as usual, while the TBT navigation system is free. Most consumers are reluctant to purchase a dedicated PND product after they have a free mobile navigation system. We have embraced the first interface for smartphone and telematics integration. The interface is completed by Harman and Nokia. Users can use mobile applications not only through the car telematics system, but also access vehicle data such as location, speed and fuel status.
Does this mean that we have taken a big circle and returned to the in-vehicle system? I doubt it. Mobile devices have many advantages; multi-mode line planning, music collection, cameras, mobile phones, and netbooks with mail and social applications have no advantage; they mean extra spending, another small carry Tools, or can only be used in the car.
The seamless integration of mobile phones and in-vehicle devices will become a trend; the PND is destined to exit the stage of history. However, perhaps like Olsen and Mr. Watson, I am also wrong.
3, PND is the most suitable product for navigation
Portable mobile devices, mobile phone navigation, and embedded navigation all play a role, and they all have their own unique advantages. Which system will be recognized will depend on the market segmentation and the need to grasp the user's needs. Let's briefly review each solution and perhaps find the best solution.
We can see that PND is exploding in the past 4 years. Its popularity has reached a new height. It is no longer a rarity in fantasy, but a popular tool that can save time and money. With the large-scale use of PND, its price is also decreasing, consumers can afford PND products, no longer need to borrow each other, and even some users have bought a second and third products to facilitate Used in occasions. As a single-use device, the PND is the product that best suits its design goals. As far as navigation is concerned, it does a very good job. But these less expensive systems come with some accessories, more precisely wires and suction cups.
Smartphone navigation is not a new concept, it has evolved alongside the app store. As a multi-function device, smartphones provide access to many applications. Instant maps are "free" and these phones are not cheap. If you count the cost of the network, a smartphone may be many times more expensive than a PND. In addition, the navigational features of these devices may be less experienced than those designed for navigation. Smaller screens and a simple adjustment interface may distract the driver. These applications are often less integrated, causing them to conflict with other features in the phone. Smartphone navigation may be best for users who don't use it often or temporarily use navigation, which is also a good choice for pedestrians.
Embedded navigation systems are best suited to provide more convenient navigation services. The device is typically embedded in the car and provides a voice-trigger interface to reduce driver distraction. Vehicle data also provides convenience for other services, such as short-circuit lines and optimal driving schemes, which not only reduce travel costs, but also improve driving safety. At the same time, all these conveniences also bring higher prices and are added to the cost of car purchases. In addition, people also found that after the embedded navigation device, the sales speed of the car will increase by 16%.
4, personal navigation equipment still has value
In the past 18 months, the performance of the PND and smartphone industry has been very different. Although the economic crisis began in the second half of 2008, Canalis estimated that the total shipment of smartphones in 2009 could exceed 166 million units, 81% of which have integrated GPS functions. It is estimated that by 2013, 96% of smartphones will integrate GPS functions. In contrast, the PND market experienced a global shrinkage last year after an 18% increase in 2008. Canalys predicts that PND will continue to grow in Asia Pacific and Latin America between 2010 and 2013, but this will not offset the rapid contraction in Western Europe and North America.
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Assessing the development of the mobile phone and PND industries over the past two years, handset manufacturers have proven that they can meet the needs of consumers and deliver revolutionary products. The mobile phone's entry into the mobile navigation field has made the promotion of TBT navigation special equipment difficult, thus losing the potential customer base of the PND market. With the continuous improvement of hardware and user interfaces, and the widespread use of mobile applications, the positioning capabilities of smart phones have been greatly improved, and the penetration rate has been greatly improved. In the past few months, Google and Nokia have announced their own free TBT navigation solutions, which will further change the market development.
In contrast, the pace of innovation in PND hardware and software is relatively slow. In addition, in response to the depressed global economy in 2009, PND suppliers have also reduced costs and reduced their sales expenses.
Although there is a certain connection between mobile phones and PNDs, it is important to emphasize that we cannot directly compare these two different types of market conditions. They are different TBT navigation platforms, and the sale of an integrated GPS phone is not the same as the sale of a small PND. PND and mobile navigation solutions are constantly being optimized and require different modes of travel, especially since the market still lacks such a single user-friendly device to truly provide a seamless, multi-mode mobile navigation experience.
As existing PND manufacturers continue to consolidate their position in the navigation market, they have a strong voice in defending product prices and status. They also work more closely with the channel to launch more effective and mutually beneficial marketing activities. PND vendors must launch more revolutionary products at a faster rate to attract existing and potential customer segments.
The continuous improvement of relevant content is crucial to the differentiated development of future PND products. The world's leading suppliers have established partnerships with many automakers, high-end and mass-market automotive product manufacturers in different countries, and a large number of automakers are eager to increase the penetration of PND products. Canalys believes that the PND market will not disappear, but market suppliers will face very serious challenges. It takes great courage and strength to continue to develop and stand in this market.
5. The balance of the navigation device is tilted
At present, the debate about PND and mobile navigation is still hot. Before last year, people also agreed that PND will firmly occupy the market with its larger screen, the best navigation experience and lower price. But some recent events have broken this balance, and the advantages of mobile navigation have become more prominent.
First, the sales of large-screen touch smartphones have been surprisingly good since 2009. The iPhone was the initial driving force, but this was quickly imitated by all major mobile phone manufacturers. It has already brought customers a mobile navigation user experience closer to PND. Second, Nokia and Google have launched a free TBT navigation system for their Symbian and Android smartphones, which further weakens the value of PND. With the popularity of smartphones, mobile navigation will soon become a universal feature of mobile phones. In addition, Nokia and Google also provide free traffic information, and Nokia even added a free city guide.
However, this does not mean that the PND will exit the market. Of course, PND vendors will have to take a more granular approach to relocating their solutions to meet the needs of the market. On the one hand, they must continue to improve their skills and produce quality products that provide the best navigation experience. However, this obviously only attracts high-end markets, including those that use navigation frequently or use navigation as an important feature. On the other hand, there is still a low-end PND market that provides positioning only in this field. PND suppliers should also provide services that mobile navigation cannot achieve in this market.
PND vendors can no longer ignore mobile navigation. The latest financial reports from Garmin and TomTom clearly show that the demand for PND in developed regions is becoming saturated, even in Europe and other regions. In the Asia-Pacific region and other developing countries, market demand will still be foreseen. Growth, but it depends on the development of mobile navigation.
Finally, I would like to say that a new type of multi-functional portable device will also seize the PND market, such as mobile Internet devices (MID). However, they will be more to learn from the advantages of PND than to replace it.
6. PND is facing increasingly fierce competition
At present, there are 175 million sets of TBT navigation systems in the world, including 35.5 million sets of navigation systems installed in the built-in or accessory market, more than 100 million sets of personal navigation devices, and nearly 4 million sets of mobile phones with navigation functions. Due to the application of mobile navigation services and the popularity of low-cost embedded navigation systems, PND devices are facing increasingly fierce market competition. BergInsight predicts that PND sales will peak in Europe and North America around 2011, and each market will reach approximately 20 million units per year, and market sales will then decline. However, mobile-based navigation services may bring a special market competition.
In the past, PNDs have a better experience than mobile navigation services because of their larger touch screen and optimal professional user interface. However, the emergence of new mobile phones has greatly compensated for this gap, such as smartphones with large screens and optimal touch-manipulating user interfaces. The rapid development of mobile user interfaces, software integration and hardware performance will help to enhance the competitiveness of mobile phones in the future. The emergence of low-cost smartphones will become a reality, which also laid the foundation for the popularity of mobile applications in the mass market. Increasing market competition among manufacturers will also lead to a continuous decline in the price of mobile navigation services.
More importantly, mobile navigation services are well-suited for complementing other solutions, especially for users who occasionally use navigation services, or those that are primarily used for in-vehicle navigation. Travel navigation is being rolled out, including improved map data and multi-modal navigation. It considers all possible modes of travel (including trains, buses and walks) and offers users a variety of route plans. At the same time, the phone is also suitable for other types of positioning applications.
PND vendors are increasingly focusing on new networking PND products and online services. Networked PNDs can access dynamic content with a wireless connection, increasing the value of everyday mobile devices. Its local search, traffic flow information and high-speed camera positioning capabilities can be used in familiar environments and in new travel environments. PNDs may be favored by a small number of users who frequently use navigation or who want to purchase a professional navigation device.
7, the user needs a larger display screen
Users will choose large-screen navigation devices that are clear enough for users to clearly navigate through maps and visualizations, while enjoying a continuous navigation experience. No matter which device, as long as it can provide users with the best experience, it will win the market. It's worth noting that navigation has become an integral part of smartphones. We've found that more and more original equipment manufacturers want to bundle navigation into their devices, and MapmyIndia offers the best smartphones in the industry, with Motorola Milestone and MicromaxW900 being two examples. We find that the PND and tablet markets are still showing rapid growth, and automakers are also very willing to provide this value to users.
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