In 2015, smartphones faced unprecedented challenges. The domestic mobile phone market, which has maintained a strong growth, has begun to touch the ceiling of shipments. After encountering bottlenecks in the smartphone market and gradually entering the growth buffer period, the chip market has encountered the same problem.
In its report for the fourth quarter of 2015 (third quarter of 2015), Qualcomm showed that its total shipments of MSM communication chips fell by 14% compared to the same period last year, and chip revenues fell by 25%. MediaTek is also In the recent financial statement, it was suggested that the original planned 450 million smartphone chip shipment target will be lowered to below 400 million.
At present, we believe that smartphones in developed countries around the world, including most of China's urban markets, have entered saturation. With the popularity of smartphones, the driving force for users to buy new phones is changing: when they buy smart phones for the first time, they are users of new products, which constitutes the main driving force for the original market growth; but now they become old replacements Mobile phone users began to pay more attention to user experience, brand impressions, fashion trends and other factors. At the same time, domestic mobile operators have greatly reduced their subsidies for mobile phone hardware. These factors have extended the average user change time. In addition, mature smartphone users will have higher requirements for new mobile phones, which requires chip manufacturers to target consumption. Change the role of the person, re-design the market strategy to meet the market requirements and cater to the consumer psychology product, and quickly respond to changes in the market to adjust the market strategy
Pattern: The power of the spoiler is strong
Looking ahead to the development of the new year, we must first see the competitive landscape of the market, especially in 2016.
Throughout the year of 2015, one of the most prominent highlights of the chip market was the emergence of the “spoiler†Ziguang Group. The ongoing acquisition of mergers and acquisitions has made it the most elusive “unstable factor†in the market.
From the past history of Ziguang, this is a team that is very familiar with the operation of the capital market. At this stage, the core of its management's business logic is to invest in the establishment of an industrial ecosystem rather than directly operating mergers and acquisitions. At present, the group has gradually established an industrial chain throughout the IT industry through acquisitions, investments and joint ventures, and the semiconductor industry is also the development direction of the country. Ziguang's investment logic reflects the overall appeal of domestic enterprises to get the opportunity to transform high-tech industries with the help of the state. However, from historical experience, I don't think that building a “red industry chain†is a correct expression because of the existence of some political factors. Excessive high-profile will touch some sensitive governments and set more obstacles for Chinese investors.
As a large amount of funds have begun to enter the market, the subsequent impact on the Chinese mobile phone chip market will certainly appear one after another. The only remaining time is waiting for the domestic chip companies to catch up with the technology. To be sure, the 2016 chip market is already a game for a small number of players, the first of which is affected by MediaTek. For MediaTek, after the delisting from the US, Spreadtrum can more aggressively fight the price war in the low-end market, thereby capturing the market share of MediaTek; and the deep industrial accumulation of Qualcomm and Samsung will continue to squeeze the space of MediaTek. Let MediaTek be attacked by the enemy. In addition, the rise of Hess has also led to the trend of mobile phone manufacturers to research chips, including ZTE and Xiaomi are developing self-developed chips that can be used in smart phones.
Strategy: Significant polarization
Faced with such a market structure, from the perspective of manufacturers, they will develop a more obvious polarization strategy.
Qualcomm and MediaTek need to be recognized by investors for their revenue and profit margins, and the backwardness of domestic manufacturers in technology has forced them to start from the low end. Every family has a difficult experience, and the polarization strategy begins. .
Qualcomm's decline in 2015 was mainly due to the impact of Samsung and Huawei's self-developed chips in its high-end market, which was not greatly affected by other competitors; MediaTek is still step by step to change its traditional brand image. Although they have encountered certain difficulties and challenges, they will continue to adhere to a common strategy of insisting on the development of high-end product lines and striving for a more favorable market position.
Although the high-end market is saturated, the price and profit of high-end chips will be much higher than that of low-end chips, and profits are also important indexes for listed companies such as Qualcomm and MediaTek. They will use new technology to force the market to upgrade or reduce costs in various ways to compete with domestic chip manufacturers.
In contrast, Chinese manufacturers have clear goals, and they can resolutely use price reduction and other methods to achieve better cost performance and focus on revenue growth. However, it is worth noting that at the current stage, domestic manufacturers do not have the strength of the international giant wrenches in terms of technology or product quality.
Technology: each show
Technological innovation is the key to winning the market, and this is also the key to the market's current position and impact on the market.
In view of the further development of mobile phone homogenization, more and more manufacturers are paying attention to technology. The heat of various technical keywords including AR, VR, and 16nm FinFet began to ferment at the end of 2015. These technologies include application technology and chip production technology, and the content is very rich.
14/16nmFF technology is a technology that has been developed according to the evolution of the semiconductor industry (Moore's Law) and has been adopted on a large scale since 2015. This technology can bring about an improvement in chip performance and a decrease in power consumption, and becomes an important differentiation. Hot spots are natural. AR and VR are actually very early concepts, but so far, due to the low maturity, these two technologies are still unable to obtain large-scale applications, and we need to distinguish between AR and VR, and now have the opportunity to enter the market. The first widely accepted should be VR
VR can become a hot spot in 2015, and there are voices that advocate the emergence of mature products in 2016, or IT giants such as Microsoft, Google, Facebook, etc., and well-known electronics manufacturers such as Sony, Samsung and HTC will have new products. The entire industry chain is expecting the giant to promote rapid maturity of technology.
In contrast, the technologies of 3D TV and holographic display in the past few years have been paid attention to by the market and have high hopes. However, due to the immature and obscure experience of the corresponding technology, it has not been widely recognized and accepted by consumers, and ultimately cannot be Mainstream products in the market. Therefore, we are still unable to infer from the existing results whether the two technologies of VR and AR can quickly enter the mainstream market.
It is worth mentioning that the patent issue that has always worried the manufacturers will not break out in 2016. Qualcomm still sells chips in this market, so it must be scrupulous, and the patent lawsuit itself will be subject to regional restrictions rather than global unification. Unless there are special circumstances, that is, Qualcomm completely separates the chip and patent licensing business, then it can ask for patent fees without worrying about the customer relationship affecting the chip business, just like Ericsson’s previous lawsuit against Xiaomi in India and Apple’s lawsuit against Apple in the United States. . However, from the current comments of Qualcomm, the possibility of this incident is not great.
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