In the photovoltaic industry, the single polycrystalline fraction has long been a topic of discussion. By the end of 2017, a report from SPV, a U.S.-based solar market research firm, indicated that single-crystal cells accounted for 49% of the market, while polycrystalline components took up 46%. However, these figures sparked debate among industry experts.
According to the SPV report, global solar module output reached 97.7 GW in 2017, with 93.8 GW shipped and 95.1 GW installed. The report suggested that single-crystal modules held a 49% market share, compared to 46% for polycrystalline. But after reviewing data from over 10 companies across the PV supply chain, as well as financial analysts and industry groups, PVInfolink—a leading PV analysis firm—disagreed with this conclusion. They claimed that the actual ratio was closer to 3:7 in favor of polycrystalline silicon, which remained the dominant technology in the market.
PVInfolink further noted that both single- and multi-crystalline manufacturers had expansion plans for 2018. While they expected an increase in the market share of single-crystal modules, the overall market would still be primarily driven by polycrystalline technology. Lin Rong, a PVInfolink analyst, emphasized that the SPV data was inaccurate. She estimated that polycrystalline silicon made up more than 70% of total production in 2017, with single-crystal accounting for about 30%. By 2018, she predicted that the single-crystal share would rise slightly to around 37%.
Ma Yi, vice president of PV Billion, also raised concerns about the accuracy of SPV’s findings. He noted that the market share of single-crystal modules declined in the second half of 2017 but might see a slight increase in the second half of 2018.
To better understand the market share of single and polycrystalline modules in 2017, analysts have proposed three different methods for estimation.
The first method involves analyzing the global wafer shipments to cell and module manufacturers. Lin Yurong, a PVInfolink analyst, calculated that major producers like GCL and Jinko Solar sourced significant amounts of polycrystalline wafers, while companies like Longji Leye focused on single-crystal production. Based on internal company reports, she estimated that Longji shipped around 9 GW of single-crystal wafers annually, while Central shipped approximately 6.2 GW.
Another approach is examining procurement trends from domestic power stations, which are considered a key indicator of global demand. According to CITIC Securities analyst Gong Yongfeng, China remains the largest market for solar modules, and the procurement patterns there reflect global trends. In 2017, polycrystalline modules continued to dominate, with a projected ratio of 35% for single-crystal and 65% for polycrystalline in 2018.
The third method involves analyzing component shipment data. Major polycrystalline module manufacturers include Jinko Energy, GCL, Trina Solar, and others, while single-crystal leaders like Longji Leye and Jingao Optoelectronics focus on their own technologies. Overall, polycrystalline modules still hold a larger share in the market.
Beyond market share, the technological evolution between single and polycrystalline silicon is equally important. Both technologies are advancing rapidly, with improvements in efficiency and cost reduction. For example, the price of polycrystalline modules fell to 2.7–2.75 yuan per watt, while single-crystal modules ranged from 2.7–2.9 yuan per watt in early 2018.
Technological innovations such as PERC (Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell) and black silicon have helped close the efficiency gap between the two. Companies like GCL-Poly and Artes have reported efficiencies exceeding 20% for polycrystalline modules, while single-crystal modules have reached up to 21.8% in some cases. These advancements suggest that both technologies will continue to coexist and compete in the future.
While the cost difference between single and polycrystalline silicon remains significant due to differences in production processes, both are expected to play critical roles in the evolving solar market. As production scales up and technology improves, the balance between the two may shift, but for now, polycrystalline technology still holds the majority share.
Ultimately, the market will decide the future of single and polycrystalline technologies, rather than policy or short-term trends. With continued investment and innovation, both technologies are set to shape the next phase of the global solar industry.
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